Future scenarios of the Dutch mobility system in 2050

Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands has developed four scenarios for the future of the Dutch mobility system in 2050. These ‘radical but realistic’ scenarios come from a multidisciplinary team of researchers called the Mobilisers and serve as a strategic thinking framework to help stakeholders in government, industry and knowledge institutes make sense of the complex challenges surrounding mobility.
Everyone wants a sustainable, affordable, inclusive, safe and resilient mobility system. Unfortunately, however, there is a shortage of personnel, financial resources, materials, energy and physical space.
‘When thinking about a better and more sustainable mobility system, complex dilemmas arise where we inevitably have to compromise on some goals,’ argues Deborah Nas, coordinator of the Mobilisers and professor of Strategic Design for Technology-Based Innovation. ‘This is why I call mobility a wicked problem: attempting to address one aspect almost always exposes new problems. Our strategic foresight with the four scenarios helps to make better-informed decisions for the future.’
Rector Magnificus of TU Delft, Professor Tim van der Hagen, underlines the importance of this strategic foresight. ‘The future of mobility depends on our current choices. This reflection helps us and our partners to look beyond current challenges and prepare for opportunities and risks. This is an essential part of our mission as a university: to advance knowledge and contribute to solving the vast social issues.’
Four scenarios
The scenarios, developed using the Strategic Foresight method, are based on two crucial dimensions: the degree of government intervention and society’s attitude towards technological change. Low government intervention promotes market-driven solutions, with an emphasis on free trade and entrepreneurship. High intervention prioritises broad welfare goals such as sustainability, health and inclusiveness. Along these axes, four possible worlds emerge.
1. Innovation Fast Track
In this market-driven scenario, society embraces rapid technological innovation, prioritising economic growth and convenience. However, the lack of government control leads to increasing inequality, inefficient use of public space and environmental challenges.
2. Hyperconnected Systems
This scenario focuses on strong government intervention and social enthusiasm for technology. Large public investments create sustainable, integrated mobility systems and liveable urban spaces. This approach achieves broad prosperity but requires large public investments and introduces new bureaucratic complexity.
3. Sustainable Slowdown
With an emphasis on community and sustainability, this scenario outlines cautious adoption of proven technologies. Government-led initiatives and behavioural change are central, ensuring equity and resilience, but at the expense of freedom of movement and economic growth.
4. Mobility Patchwork
In this fragmented future, there is minimal government intervention and societal scepticism towards new technologies. Mobility companies focus on proven technologies and focus on profitable routes and market segments. The mobility system is fragmented and the lack of coordination results in inequality, environmental problems and inefficiency.
Black Swans and Grey Rhinos
The report also examines Black Swan events – unpredictable high-impact events – and Grey Rhinos, predictable but often ignored threats. By addressing these factors, the scenarios help stakeholders test policies and identify interventions that are valuable in all circumstances.
The scenarios are now being used in TU Delft’s Future Mobility Workshops. These workshops bring together professionals and academics to exchange ideas, explore future challenges, test strategies and identify no-regret policy interventions. The Mobilisers also invite public organisations with mobility issues to get in touch.
To clarify what the different elements of the mobility system could look like, the Mobilisers present their perspectives on the scenarios in their areas of expertise, such as shared urban mobility, autonomous cars, active modes, aviation and logistics. These perspectives are illustrative examples of what the future could look like. The perspectives can be read here.