The Next 100 years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

The American political scientist and forecaster George Friedman, author of ‘The Next 100 Years’, predicts that China will not overtake the US in terms of dominating international affairs. Although currently perceived as the nation most likely to challenge America’s leading position, China will be held back by its relative isolation in geographical terms and the political instability in the country. In this fascinating book, Friedman sets out the economic and geopolitical developments for the coming century. Friedman foresees the decline or even the implosion of China and Russia around the year 2020, and the emergence of three new world powers: Poland, Turkey and Japan. The expansion of the latter two powers and their informal military alliance will lead, in 2050, to the Third World War against the US, which will be allied with Poland. These may sound like fantastical predictions out of a work of science fiction, but, backing up his forecasts with economic and demographic statistics against the background of geopolitics, Friedman manages to make his envisaged scenarios seem relatively plausible.

‘The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century’ (2009), by George Friedman. Published by Doubleday (hardcover), Anchor (paperback).

Rating: *****